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Allister Crossley v Mark Grace (Thu 03 Oct 2019)

Match won by Allister Crossley. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Allister Crossley: 1,884, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Mark Grace: 1,297, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Allister Crossley to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Mark Grace.

Allister Crossley won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Allister Crossley played 65% better than Mark Grace in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Allister Crossley actually played at a level of 2,008 and Mark Grace at a level of 1,217. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.4% and 5.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Allister Crossley changes to +5.4% and Mark Grace changes to -4.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Allister Crossley becomes +3.3% and for Mark Grace becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Allister Crossley is +2.5% and for Mark Grace is -2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Allister Crossley: 76%, Mark Grace: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Allister Crossley: 72%, Mark Grace: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Allister Crossley: 1,928, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Mark Grace: 1,265, level confidence: 82%.