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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Edmon Lopez Moller (Tue 01 Oct 2019)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-1,11-5.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 34,355, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 33,461, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Edmon Lopez Moller.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 267% better than Edmon Lopez Moller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mahesh Mangaonkar actually played at a level of 64,923 and Edmon Lopez Moller at a level of 17,706. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 89% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 60% and 60% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to +60% and Edmon Lopez Moller changes to -43%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes +10.4% and for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes -8.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar is +8.8% and for Edmon Lopez Moller is -6.8%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mahesh Mangaonkar is limited to +5.5% and Edmon Lopez Moller is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 80%, Edmon Lopez Moller: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 42%, Edmon Lopez Moller: 47%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 36,340, level confidence: 42%.
Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 31,947, level confidence: 47%.