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Leslie Callow v Jon Shepherd (Mon 07 Oct 2019)

Match won by Jon Shepherd. Result: 4-15,7-15,4-15.

Starting level for Leslie Callow: 980, level confidence: 42%.
Starting level for Jon Shepherd: 1,378, level confidence: 91%. Set manually.
Jon Shepherd to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Leslie Callow.

Jon Shepherd won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jon Shepherd played 200% better than Leslie Callow in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jon Shepherd actually played at a level of 2,013 and Leslie Callow at a level of 671. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 46% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 38% and 38% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jon Shepherd changes to +17% and Leslie Callow changes to -38%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jon Shepherd becomes +8.7% and for Leslie Callow becomes -19%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Jon Shepherd is +6.5% and for Leslie Callow is -14%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Leslie Callow is limited to -10% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jon Shepherd: 95%, Leslie Callow: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jon Shepherd: 65%, Leslie Callow: 44%.

A final adjustment of +1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leslie Callow: 918, level confidence: 44%.
Final level for Jon Shepherd: 1,466, level confidence: 65%.