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Toby Dawson v Torrie Malik (Mon 07 Oct 2019)

Match won by Toby Dawson. Result: 5-11,11-9,11-9,13-11.

Starting level for Toby Dawson: 4,913, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Torrie Malik: 6,795, level confidence: 66%.
Torrie Malik to win as she is currently playing 38% better than Toby Dawson.

Toby Dawson won 75% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Toby Dawson played 17% better than Torrie Malik in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Toby Dawson actually played at a level of 6,243 and Torrie Malik at a level of 5,347. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Toby Dawson changes to +19% and Torrie Malik changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Toby Dawson becomes +6.3% and for Torrie Malik becomes -6.6%.

Given Torrie Malik's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.1% has been applied to her level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Toby Dawson is +4.7% and for Torrie Malik is -4.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Toby Dawson: 88%, Torrie Malik: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Toby Dawson: 69%, Torrie Malik: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Toby Dawson: 5,157, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Torrie Malik: 6,517, level confidence: 64%.