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Malcolm Levy v Jason Blue (Thu 10 Oct 2019)

Match won by Jason Blue. Result: 11-9,4-11,11-7,8-11,4-11.

Starting level for Malcolm Levy: 4,383, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Jason Blue: 4,744, level confidence: 67%.
Jason Blue to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Malcolm Levy.

Jason Blue won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jason Blue played 15% better than Malcolm Levy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jason Blue actually played at a level of 4,884 and Malcolm Levy at a level of 4,257. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jason Blue changes to +2.7% and Malcolm Levy changes to -2.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jason Blue becomes +1.6% and for Malcolm Levy becomes -1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Jason Blue is +1.2% and for Malcolm Levy is -1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jason Blue: 82%, Malcolm Levy: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jason Blue: 80%, Malcolm Levy: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Malcolm Levy: 4,321, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Jason Blue: 4,794, level confidence: 80%.