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Dave Hedley v Lyndon Cheetham (Thu 10 Oct 2019)

Match won by Lyndon Cheetham. Result: 9-11,5-11,11-6,11-10,4-11.

Starting level for Dave Hedley: 1,526, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lyndon Cheetham: 2,231, level confidence: 68%.
Lyndon Cheetham to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Dave Hedley.

Lyndon Cheetham won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyndon Cheetham played 13% better than Dave Hedley in this match.

As Lyndon Cheetham has played below his allowed range at 1,867, his level reduction is 8.2% before damping. On the assumption that Lyndon Cheetham would normally have been playing at level 2,135 (based on typical behaviour), Dave Hedley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.7% and 9.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham changes to -6.7% and Dave Hedley changes to +8.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham becomes -3.6% and for Dave Hedley becomes +4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham is -2.7% and for Dave Hedley is +3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyndon Cheetham: 82%, Dave Hedley: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyndon Cheetham: 72%, Dave Hedley: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dave Hedley: 1,577, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Lyndon Cheetham: 2,170, level confidence: 72%.