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Chris Simpson v Patrick Rooney (Wed 09 Oct 2019)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 11-9,7-11,15-13,11-9.

Starting level for Chris Simpson: 36,652, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 34,457, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Patrick Rooney.

Chris Simpson won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 18% better than Patrick Rooney in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Simpson actually played at a level of 38,656 and Patrick Rooney at a level of 32,671. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to +5.3% and Patrick Rooney changes to -4.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes +1.6% and for Patrick Rooney becomes -1.4%.

Given Chris Simpson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 64% has been applied to his level change.

Given Patrick Rooney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 61% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Chris Simpson is +0.7% and for Patrick Rooney is -0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 75%, Patrick Rooney: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 71%, Patrick Rooney: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Simpson: 37,011, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney: 34,322, level confidence: 81%.