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Michael Aley v Ondrej Uherka (Thu 10 Oct 2019)

Match won by Ondrej Uherka. Result: 11-4,6-11,7-11,7-11.

Starting level for Michael Aley: 8,389, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ondrej Uherka: 15,772, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Ondrej Uherka to win as he is currently playing 88% better than Michael Aley.

Ondrej Uherka won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ondrej Uherka played 23% better than Michael Aley in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ondrej Uherka was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,319 and 15,772 without affecting his level.

As Ondrej Uherka has played below his allowed range at 11,281, his level reduction is 9.2% before damping. On the assumption that Ondrej Uherka would normally have been playing at level 14,132 (based on typical behaviour), Michael Aley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.6% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ondrej Uherka changes to -6.2% and Michael Aley changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ondrej Uherka becomes -2.1% and for Michael Aley becomes +3.8%.

Given Ondrej Uherka's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change.

Given Michael Aley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Ondrej Uherka is -1.2% and for Michael Aley is +2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ondrej Uherka: 92%, Michael Aley: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ondrej Uherka: 74%, Michael Aley: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael Aley: 8,589, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Ondrej Uherka: 15,564, level confidence: 74%.