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Allister Crossley v Ben Peach (Thu 10 Oct 2019)

Match won by Ben Peach. Result: 9-11,9-11,11-8,11-7,7-11.

Starting level for Allister Crossley: 1,930, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Ben Peach: 2,301, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Ben Peach to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Allister Crossley.

Ben Peach won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Peach played 8% better than Allister Crossley in this match.

As Ben Peach has played below his allowed range at 2,167, his level reduction is 3.9% before damping. On the assumption that Ben Peach would normally have been playing at level 2,279 (based on typical behaviour), Allister Crossley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.6%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Peach changes to -3.3% and Allister Crossley changes to +4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Peach becomes -2.4% and for Allister Crossley becomes +2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Ben Peach is -1.8% and for Allister Crossley is +2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Peach: 87%, Allister Crossley: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Peach: 82%, Allister Crossley: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Allister Crossley: 1,967, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Ben Peach: 2,258, level confidence: 82%.