Mathieu Castagnet v Youssef Soliman (Mon 07 Oct 2019)
Match won by Mathieu Castagnet. Result: 11-9,11-9,11-7.
Starting level for
Mathieu Castagnet:
43,476, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Youssef Soliman:
36,477, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Mathieu Castagnet to win as he is currently playing
19% better than Youssef Soliman.
Mathieu Castagnet won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mathieu Castagnet played
40% better than Youssef Soliman in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mathieu Castagnet actually played at a level of
47,050 and Youssef Soliman at a level of
33,706. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet changes to +7.2% and Youssef Soliman changes to -7.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet becomes +1.9% and for Youssef Soliman becomes -2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mathieu Castagnet: 90%, Youssef Soliman: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mathieu Castagnet: 83%, Youssef Soliman: 82%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mathieu Castagnet:
44,197, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Youssef Soliman:
35,936, level confidence: 82%.