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Cameron Pilley v Greg Lobban (Mon 07 Oct 2019)

Match won by Cameron Pilley. Result: 11-7,11-9,7-11,11-6.

Starting level for Cameron Pilley: 37,365, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Greg Lobban: 41,717, level confidence: 68%.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Cameron Pilley.

Cameron Pilley won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Pilley played 24% better than Greg Lobban in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron Pilley actually played at a level of 43,920 and Greg Lobban at a level of 35,491. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley changes to +17% and Greg Lobban changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley becomes +3.6% and for Greg Lobban becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Pilley: 78%, Greg Lobban: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Pilley: 66%, Greg Lobban: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cameron Pilley: 38,660, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Greg Lobban: 40,545, level confidence: 70%.