Iker Pajares Bernabeu v Tsz Fung Yip (Mon 07 Oct 2019)
Match won by Iker Pajares Bernabeu. Result: 13-11,6-11,11-8,12-10.
Starting level for
Iker Pajares Bernabeu:
38,379, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for
Tsz Fung Yip:
36,919, level confidence: 65%.
Iker Pajares Bernabeu to win as he is currently playing
4% better than Tsz Fung Yip.
Iker Pajares Bernabeu won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Iker Pajares Bernabeu played
18% better than Tsz Fung Yip in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Iker Pajares Bernabeu actually played at a level of
40,959 and Tsz Fung Yip at a level of
34,594. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.7% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Iker Pajares Bernabeu changes to +6.6% and Tsz Fung Yip changes to -5.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Iker Pajares Bernabeu becomes +1.8% and for Tsz Fung Yip becomes -1.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 76%, Tsz Fung Yip: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 71%, Tsz Fung Yip: 76%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu:
39,046, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Tsz Fung Yip:
36,411, level confidence: 76%.