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Campbell Grayson v Youssef Soliman (Mon 07 Oct 2019)

Match won by Campbell Grayson. Result: 11-5,13-15,11-7,6-11,12-10.

Starting level for Campbell Grayson: 41,497, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 35,936, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Campbell Grayson to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Youssef Soliman.

Campbell Grayson won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Campbell Grayson played 10% better than Youssef Soliman in this match.

As Campbell Grayson has played below his allowed range at 40,316, his level reduction is 1.9% before damping. On the assumption that Campbell Grayson would normally have been playing at level 41,288 (based on typical behaviour), Youssef Soliman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.2%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson changes to -1.8% and Youssef Soliman changes to +1.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson becomes -0.7% and for Youssef Soliman becomes +0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Campbell Grayson: 76%, Youssef Soliman: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Campbell Grayson: 75%, Youssef Soliman: 88%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Campbell Grayson: 41,139, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Youssef Soliman: 36,204, level confidence: 88%.