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Adrain Waller v Declan James (Tue 08 Oct 2019)

Match won by Adrain Waller. Result: 11-2,8-11,13-11,11-8.

Starting level for Adrain Waller: 40,960, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Declan James: 41,910, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Adrain Waller.

Adrain Waller won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrain Waller played 28% better than Declan James in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrain Waller actually played at a level of 46,892 and Declan James at a level of 36,608. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrain Waller changes to +14% and Declan James changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrain Waller becomes +3.2% and for Declan James becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrain Waller: 84%, Declan James: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrain Waller: 73%, Declan James: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrain Waller: 42,129, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Declan James: 41,069, level confidence: 78%.