SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Raphael Kandra v Fares Dessouky (Tue 08 Oct 2019)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 9-11,12-10,11-5,11-7.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 42,392, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Fares Dessouky: 53,136, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Fares Dessouky to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Raphael Kandra.

Raphael Kandra won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 27% better than Fares Dessouky in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raphael Kandra actually played at a level of 53,433 and Fares Dessouky at a level of 42,156. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to +23% and Fares Dessouky changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes +4.6% and for Fares Dessouky becomes -4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 85%, Fares Dessouky: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 68%, Fares Dessouky: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 44,209, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Fares Dessouky: 51,003, level confidence: 67%.