Raphael Kandra v Fares Dessouky (Tue 08 Oct 2019)
Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 9-11,12-10,11-5,11-7.
Starting level for
Raphael Kandra:
42,252, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Fares Dessouky:
52,873, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Fares Dessouky to win as he is currently playing
25% better than Raphael Kandra.
Raphael Kandra won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played
27% better than Fares Dessouky in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raphael Kandra actually played at a level of
53,213 and Fares Dessouky at a level of
41,982. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to +23% and Fares Dessouky changes to -23%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes +4.5% and for Fares Dessouky becomes -4.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 85%, Fares Dessouky: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 68%, Fares Dessouky: 67%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Raphael Kandra:
44,056, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Fares Dessouky:
50,750, level confidence: 67%.