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Mohamed Elshorbagy v Borja Golan (Tue 08 Oct 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 11-8,5-11,11-7,11-9.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 70,493, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Borja Golan: 42,212, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 67% better than Borja Golan.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 20% better than Borja Golan in this match.

As Mohamed Elshorbagy has played below his allowed range at 55,349, his level reduction is 9.7% before damping. On the assumption that Mohamed Elshorbagy would normally have been playing at level 65,409 (based on typical behaviour), Borja Golan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.4% and 10.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to -6.4% and Borja Golan changes to +10.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -1.6% and for Borja Golan becomes +2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 91%, Borja Golan: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 77%, Borja Golan: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 69,276, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Borja Golan: 43,350, level confidence: 72%.