SquashLevels calculations
Ali Farag v Adrian Waller (Wed 09 Oct 2019)
Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 11-3,11-9,11-8.
Starting level for
Ali Farag:
70,439, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Adrian Waller:
41,912, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing
68% better than Adrian Waller.
Ali Farag won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played
65% better than Adrian Waller in this match.
In this case, Ali Farag played at level 69,155 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Adrian Waller is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 87%, Adrian Waller: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 86%, Adrian Waller: 85%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ali Farag:
70,460, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Adrian Waller:
41,967, level confidence: 85%.