Sachet Baniya v Leslie Callow (Tue 15 Oct 2019)
Match won by Leslie Callow. Result: 7-15,6-15,10-15.
Starting level for
Sachet Baniya:
494, level confidence: 35%.
Starting level for
Leslie Callow:
918, level confidence: 43%.
Leslie Callow to win as he is currently playing
86% better than Sachet Baniya.
Leslie Callow won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leslie Callow played
96% better than Sachet Baniya in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leslie Callow actually played at a level of
942 and Sachet Baniya at a level of
481. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.6% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 1.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leslie Callow changes to +1.6% and Sachet Baniya changes to -1.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leslie Callow becomes +1.6% and for Sachet Baniya becomes -1.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Leslie Callow is +1.2% and for Sachet Baniya is -1.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leslie Callow: 65%, Sachet Baniya: 59%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leslie Callow: 64%, Sachet Baniya: 58%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Sachet Baniya:
486, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Leslie Callow:
927, level confidence: 64%.