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Lyndon Cheetham v Liam Townsend (Thu 17 Oct 2019)

Match won by Lyndon Cheetham. Result: 11-10,11-7,6-11,11-8.

Starting level for Lyndon Cheetham: 2,176, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Liam Townsend: 953, level confidence: 57%.
Lyndon Cheetham to win as he is currently playing 128% better than Liam Townsend.

Lyndon Cheetham won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyndon Cheetham played 20% better than Liam Townsend in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lyndon Cheetham was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,470 and 2,176 without affecting his level.

As Lyndon Cheetham has played below his allowed range at 1,294, his level reduction is 14% before damping. On the assumption that Lyndon Cheetham would normally have been playing at level 1,828 (based on typical behaviour), Liam Townsend played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 27%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.8% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham changes to -7% and Liam Townsend changes to +17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham becomes -3.7% and for Liam Townsend becomes +9.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham is -2.8% and for Liam Townsend is +7.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyndon Cheetham: 84%, Liam Townsend: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyndon Cheetham: 61%, Liam Townsend: 55%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lyndon Cheetham: 2,114, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Liam Townsend: 1,021, level confidence: 55%.