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Robert Brockwell v Piers Chadwick (Wed 16 Oct 2019)

Match won by Robert Brockwell. Result: 10-15,15-13,10-15,15-8,15-5.

Starting level for Robert Brockwell: 1,062, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Piers Chadwick: 832, level confidence: 66%.
Robert Brockwell to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Piers Chadwick.

Robert Brockwell won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robert Brockwell played 12% better than Piers Chadwick in this match.

As Robert Brockwell has played below his allowed range at 971, his level reduction is 4.6% before damping. On the assumption that Robert Brockwell would normally have been playing at level 1,041 (based on typical behaviour), Piers Chadwick played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 5.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robert Brockwell changes to -4.1% and Piers Chadwick changes to +5.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robert Brockwell becomes -3.5% and for Piers Chadwick becomes +4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Robert Brockwell is -2.6% and for Piers Chadwick is +3.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robert Brockwell: 81%, Piers Chadwick: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robert Brockwell: 76%, Piers Chadwick: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Robert Brockwell: 1,038, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Piers Chadwick: 860, level confidence: 76%.