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Patrick Fitzpatrick v David Norman (Thu 17 Oct 2019)

Match won by David Norman. Result: 6-11,5-11,4-11.

Starting level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 4,643, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for David Norman: 8,138, level confidence: 40%.
David Norman to win as he is currently playing 75% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick.

David Norman won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Norman played 120% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Norman actually played at a level of 9,117 and Patrick Fitzpatrick at a level of 4,144. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9% and 9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Norman changes to +9% and Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to -4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Norman becomes +3.1% and for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes -2.4%.

Given David Norman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for David Norman is +2.1% and for Patrick Fitzpatrick is -1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Norman: 63%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Norman: 56%, Patrick Fitzpatrick: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 4,555, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for David Norman: 8,293, level confidence: 56%.