Robin Crease v Malcolm Levy (Thu 17 Oct 2019)
Match won by Robin Crease. Result: 11-3,11-9,2-11,11-8.
Starting level for
Robin Crease:
3,851, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Malcolm Levy:
4,311, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Malcolm Levy to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Robin Crease.
Robin Crease won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robin Crease played
21% better than Malcolm Levy in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Robin Crease actually played at a level of
4,482 and Malcolm Levy at a level of
3,704. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robin Crease changes to +15% and Malcolm Levy changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robin Crease becomes +5.6% and for Malcolm Levy becomes -4.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Robin Crease is +4.2% and for Malcolm Levy is -3.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robin Crease: 80%, Malcolm Levy: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robin Crease: 69%, Malcolm Levy: 75%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Robin Crease:
4,007, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Malcolm Levy:
4,159, level confidence: 75%.