Thomas Knight v Simon Keefe (Fri 18 Oct 2019)
Match won by Thomas Knight. Result: 15-13,15-10,10-15,18-20,15-13.
Starting level for
Thomas Knight:
2,294, level confidence: 34%.
Starting level for
Simon Keefe:
2,259, level confidence: 68%.
Thomas Knight to win as he is currently playing
2% better than Simon Keefe.
Thomas Knight won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Thomas Knight played
8% better than Simon Keefe in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Thomas Knight actually played at a level of
2,368 and Simon Keefe at a level of
2,188. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Thomas Knight changes to +3.2% and Simon Keefe changes to -1.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Thomas Knight becomes +2.3% and for Simon Keefe becomes -1.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Thomas Knight is +1.7% and for Simon Keefe is -0.9%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Thomas Knight: 58%, Simon Keefe: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Thomas Knight: 56%, Simon Keefe: 80%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Thomas Knight:
2,339, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Simon Keefe:
2,245, level confidence: 80%.