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Torrie Malik v Jess Morgan (Sat 21 Sep 2019)

Match won by Torrie Malik. Result: 11-3,11-5,11-9.

Starting level for Torrie Malik: 6,383, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Jess Morgan: 2,430, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Torrie Malik to win as she is currently playing 163% better than Jess Morgan.

Torrie Malik won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Torrie Malik played 94% better than Jess Morgan in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Torrie Malik was taking it easy by anything up to 20%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 4,069 and 6,383 without affecting her level.

In this case, Torrie Malik played at level 4,903 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Torrie Malik would normally have been playing at level 5,097 (based on typical behaviour), Jess Morgan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Torrie Malik changes to 0% and Jess Morgan changes to +2.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Torrie Malik becomes 0% and for Jess Morgan becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'South West Gold - Millfield Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Torrie Malik: 83%, Jess Morgan: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Torrie Malik: 71%, Jess Morgan: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Torrie Malik: 6,373, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Jess Morgan: 2,464, level confidence: 75%.