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Torrie Malik v Kiera Marshall (Sun 22 Sep 2019)

Match won by Kiera Marshall. Result: 6-11,8-11,11-4,11-4,7-11.

Starting level for Torrie Malik: 6,358, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Kiera Marshall: 4,699, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Torrie Malik to win as she is currently playing 35% better than Kiera Marshall.

Kiera Marshall won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was worse by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kiera Marshall played 6% better than Torrie Malik in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Kiera Marshall actually played at a level of 5,636 and Torrie Malik at a level of 5,301. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kiera Marshall changes to +16% and Torrie Malik changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kiera Marshall becomes +5.4% and for Torrie Malik becomes -5.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'South West Gold - Millfield Junior Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kiera Marshall: 88%, Torrie Malik: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kiera Marshall: 73%, Torrie Malik: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Torrie Malik: 6,039, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Kiera Marshall: 4,930, level confidence: 73%.