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Ryan Bond v Oscar Hill (Mon 07 Oct 2019)

Match won by Oscar Hill. Result: 3-11,5-11,4-11.

Starting level for Ryan Bond: 4,547, level confidence: 26%.
Starting level for Oscar Hill: 6,168, level confidence: 50%.
Oscar Hill to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Ryan Bond.

Oscar Hill won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oscar Hill played 175% better than Ryan Bond in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oscar Hill actually played at a level of 8,782 and Ryan Bond at a level of 3,194. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 42% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 35% and 35% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oscar Hill changes to +18% and Ryan Bond changes to -35%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oscar Hill becomes +5.6% and for Ryan Bond becomes -10.6%.

Given Oscar Hill's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.8% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Notts Team Leagues 2019-20' so the adjustment for Oscar Hill is +4% and for Ryan Bond is -7.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oscar Hill: 71%, Ryan Bond: 51%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oscar Hill: 50%, Ryan Bond: 36%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ryan Bond: 4,231, level confidence: 36%.
Final level for Oscar Hill: 6,431, level confidence: 50%.