Ivan Yuen v Tomo Endo (Mon 14 Oct 2019)
Match won by Ivan Yuen. Result: 11-6,11-4,11-3.
Starting level for
Ivan Yuen:
32,772, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Tomo Endo:
18,795, level confidence: 61%.
Ivan Yuen to win as he is currently playing
74% better than Tomo Endo.
Ivan Yuen won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ivan Yuen played
154% better than Tomo Endo in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ivan Yuen actually played at a level of
39,542 and Tomo Endo at a level of
15,577. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ivan Yuen changes to +13% and Tomo Endo changes to -15%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ivan Yuen becomes +3% and for Tomo Endo becomes -3.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Srfi Indian Tour' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ivan Yuen: 86%, Tomo Endo: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ivan Yuen: 71%, Tomo Endo: 64%.
Final level for Ivan Yuen:
33,750, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Tomo Endo:
18,095, level confidence: 64%.