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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Addeen Idrakie (Tue 15 Oct 2019)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-5,9-11,11-6,13-11.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 37,067, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Addeen Idrakie: 22,839, level confidence: 70%.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 62% better than Addeen Idrakie.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 28% better than Addeen Idrakie in this match.

As Mahesh Mangaonkar has played below his allowed range at 30,737, his level reduction is 5.3% before damping. On the assumption that Mahesh Mangaonkar would normally have been playing at level 34,645 (based on typical behaviour), Addeen Idrakie played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to -4.2% and Addeen Idrakie changes to +7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes -1.4% and for Addeen Idrakie becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Srfi Indian Tour' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 84%, Addeen Idrakie: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 74%, Addeen Idrakie: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 36,526, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Addeen Idrakie: 23,412, level confidence: 74%.