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Juan Camilo Vargas v Yannik Omlor (Wed 16 Oct 2019)

Match won by Juan Camilo Vargas. Result: 8-11,11-2,11-7,11-9.

Starting level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 27,992, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Yannik Omlor: 18,096, level confidence: 56%.
Juan Camilo Vargas to win as he is currently playing 55% better than Yannik Omlor.

Juan Camilo Vargas won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Juan Camilo Vargas played 30% better than Yannik Omlor in this match.

As Juan Camilo Vargas has played below his allowed range at 24,297, his level reduction is 3% before damping. On the assumption that Juan Camilo Vargas would normally have been playing at level 26,462 (based on typical behaviour), Yannik Omlor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 4.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Juan Camilo Vargas changes to -2.1% and Yannik Omlor changes to +4.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Juan Camilo Vargas becomes -0.9% and for Yannik Omlor becomes +1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Chicago Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Juan Camilo Vargas: 79%, Yannik Omlor: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Juan Camilo Vargas: 72%, Yannik Omlor: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 27,753, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Yannik Omlor: 18,402, level confidence: 69%.