Patrick Rooney v Yuri Farneti (Wed 16 Oct 2019)
Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-6.
Starting level for
Patrick Rooney:
34,089, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Yuri Farneti:
19,551, level confidence: 57%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing
74% better than Yuri Farneti.
Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played
83% better than Yuri Farneti in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Rooney actually played at a level of
34,955 and Yuri Farneti at a level of
19,066. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.5% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 1.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to +1.4% and Yuri Farneti changes to -1.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes +0.6% and for Yuri Farneti becomes -0.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tring Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 89%, Yuri Farneti: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 86%, Yuri Farneti: 74%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney:
34,277, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Yuri Farneti:
19,390, level confidence: 74%.