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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu (Wed 16 Oct 2019)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 8-11,11-6,7-11,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 36,816, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 27,178, level confidence: 62%.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 10% better than Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu in this match.

As Mahesh Mangaonkar has played below his allowed range at 32,267, his level reduction is 7.5% before damping. On the assumption that Mahesh Mangaonkar would normally have been playing at level 35,741 (based on typical behaviour), Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.4% and 7.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to -5.3% and Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu changes to +7.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes -1.6% and for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu becomes +2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Srfi Indian Tour' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 86%, Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 78%, Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 36,230, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 27,825, level confidence: 71%.