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Ryan Cuskelly v Martin Svec (Thu 17 Oct 2019)

Match won by Ryan Cuskelly. Result: 11-3,11-5,11-7.

Starting level for Ryan Cuskelly: 46,509, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Martin Svec: 23,756, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Ryan Cuskelly to win as he is currently playing 96% better than Martin Svec.

Ryan Cuskelly won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ryan Cuskelly played 120% better than Martin Svec in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ryan Cuskelly actually played at a level of 49,302 and Martin Svec at a level of 22,410. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.3% and 4.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ryan Cuskelly changes to +4.3% and Martin Svec changes to -3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ryan Cuskelly becomes +1.3% and for Martin Svec becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Chicago Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ryan Cuskelly: 87%, Martin Svec: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ryan Cuskelly: 82%, Martin Svec: 86%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ryan Cuskelly: 46,636, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Martin Svec: 23,731, level confidence: 86%.