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Shahjahan Khan v Juan Camilo Vargas (Thu 17 Oct 2019)

Match won by Shahjahan Khan. Result: 8-11,11-5,4-11,11-1,11-7.

Starting level for Shahjahan Khan: 25,794, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 27,996, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Juan Camilo Vargas to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Shahjahan Khan.

Shahjahan Khan won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shahjahan Khan played 15% better than Juan Camilo Vargas in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shahjahan Khan actually played at a level of 28,773 and Juan Camilo Vargas at a level of 25,098. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shahjahan Khan changes to +11.1% and Juan Camilo Vargas changes to -9.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shahjahan Khan becomes +2.8% and for Juan Camilo Vargas becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Chicago Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shahjahan Khan: 78%, Juan Camilo Vargas: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shahjahan Khan: 70%, Juan Camilo Vargas: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Shahjahan Khan: 26,500, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 27,391, level confidence: 76%.