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Greg Lobban v Mark Broekman (Thu 17 Oct 2019)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-4,12-10,11-3.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 40,414, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Mark Broekman: 13,657, level confidence: 54%.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 196% better than Mark Broekman.

Greg Lobban won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 100% better than Mark Broekman in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Greg Lobban was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 23,369 and 40,414 without affecting his level.

In this case, Greg Lobban played at level 28,972 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Greg Lobban would normally have been playing at level 30,732 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Broekman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to 0% and Mark Broekman changes to +3.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes 0% and for Mark Broekman becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cleveland Skating Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 82%, Mark Broekman: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 67%, Mark Broekman: 61%.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 40,414, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Mark Broekman: 13,863, level confidence: 61%.