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Victor Crouin v Nicholas Sachvie (Fri 18 Oct 2019)

Match won by Victor Crouin. Result: 11-6,11-9,11-5.

Starting level for Victor Crouin: 37,524, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nicholas Sachvie: 28,334, level confidence: 68%.
Victor Crouin to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Nicholas Sachvie.

Victor Crouin won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Victor Crouin played 65% better than Nicholas Sachvie in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Victor Crouin actually played at a level of 41,884 and Nicholas Sachvie at a level of 25,384. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10% and 10% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Victor Crouin changes to +9.1% and Nicholas Sachvie changes to -10%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Victor Crouin becomes +2.3% and for Nicholas Sachvie becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cleveland Skating Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Victor Crouin: 87%, Nicholas Sachvie: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Victor Crouin: 78%, Nicholas Sachvie: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Victor Crouin: 38,236, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Nicholas Sachvie: 27,807, level confidence: 74%.