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Leonel Cardenas v Miles Jenkins (Fri 18 Oct 2019)

Match won by Leonel Cardenas. Result: 11-8,11-9,11-4.

Starting level for Leonel Cardenas: 28,083, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Miles Jenkins: 21,927, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Leonel Cardenas to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Miles Jenkins.

Leonel Cardenas won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leonel Cardenas played 56% better than Miles Jenkins in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leonel Cardenas actually played at a level of 31,037 and Miles Jenkins at a level of 19,840. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.2% and 9.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas changes to +9.2% and Miles Jenkins changes to -7.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas becomes +2.4% and for Miles Jenkins becomes -2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Texas Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leonel Cardenas: 87%, Miles Jenkins: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leonel Cardenas: 79%, Miles Jenkins: 86%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leonel Cardenas: 28,667, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Miles Jenkins: 21,577, level confidence: 86%.