Patrick Rooney v Daryl Selby (Fri 18 Oct 2019)
Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-8,11-6,14-12.
Starting level for
Patrick Rooney:
35,709, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Daryl Selby:
36,932, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing
3% better than Patrick Rooney.
Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played
44% better than Daryl Selby in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Rooney actually played at a level of
43,566 and Daryl Selby at a level of
30,271. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to +22% and Daryl Selby changes to -19%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes +4.5% and for Daryl Selby becomes -4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tring Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 87%, Daryl Selby: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 71%, Daryl Selby: 76%.
A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Patrick Rooney:
37,190, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Daryl Selby:
36,234, level confidence: 76%.