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Greg Lobban v Lyell Fuller (Sat 19 Oct 2019)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-8,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 40,958, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 25,866, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Lyell Fuller.

Greg Lobban won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 83% better than Lyell Fuller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Lobban actually played at a level of 44,071 and Lyell Fuller at a level of 24,039. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6% and 6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to +5.6% and Lyell Fuller changes to -6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes +1.6% and for Lyell Fuller becomes -1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cleveland Skating Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 87%, Lyell Fuller: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 81%, Lyell Fuller: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 41,411, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Lyell Fuller: 25,614, level confidence: 78%.