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Patrick Rooney v Ben Coleman (Sat 19 Oct 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-8,11-4,11-9.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 37,071, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ben Coleman: 32,379, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Ben Coleman.

Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 56% better than Ben Coleman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Rooney actually played at a level of 43,333 and Ben Coleman at a level of 27,700. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to +16% and Ben Coleman changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes +3.5% and for Ben Coleman becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tring Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 84%, Ben Coleman: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 72%, Ben Coleman: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 38,235, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Ben Coleman: 31,798, level confidence: 76%.