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Michael Hennings v Torrie Malik (Tue 22 Oct 2019)

Match won by Michael Hennings. Result: 15-13,15-11,7-15,15-13.

Starting level for Michael Hennings: 5,367, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Torrie Malik: 6,585, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Torrie Malik to win as she is currently playing 23% better than Michael Hennings.

Michael Hennings won 75% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Hennings played 17% better than Torrie Malik in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael Hennings actually played at a level of 6,424 and Torrie Malik at a level of 5,502. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Hennings changes to +18% and Torrie Malik changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Hennings becomes +5.7% and for Torrie Malik becomes -5.1%.

Given Michael Hennings's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.6% has been applied to his level change.

Given Torrie Malik's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6.3% has been applied to her level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Michael Hennings is +4.2% and for Torrie Malik is -3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Hennings: 83%, Torrie Malik: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Hennings: 70%, Torrie Malik: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael Hennings: 5,607, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Torrie Malik: 6,377, level confidence: 72%.