Piers Chadwick v Calum Porter (Mon 21 Oct 2019)
Match won by Piers Chadwick. Result: 13-15,15-11,7-15,15-10,15-8.
Starting level for
Piers Chadwick:
860, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Calum Porter:
754, level confidence: 32%.
Piers Chadwick to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Calum Porter.
Piers Chadwick won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Piers Chadwick played
10% better than Calum Porter in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Piers Chadwick actually played at a level of
845 and Calum Porter at a level of
768. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.8% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Piers Chadwick changes to -0.7% and Calum Porter changes to +1.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Piers Chadwick becomes -0.7% and for Calum Porter becomes +1.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Piers Chadwick is -0.5% and for Calum Porter is +1.3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Piers Chadwick: 86%, Calum Porter: 57%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Piers Chadwick: 85%, Calum Porter: 56%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Piers Chadwick:
857, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Calum Porter:
765, level confidence: 56%.