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Mason McLarney v Lyndon Cheetham (Thu 24 Oct 2019)

Match won by Mason McLarney. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-3.

Starting level for Mason McLarney: 3,042, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Lyndon Cheetham: 2,114, level confidence: 59%.
Mason McLarney to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Lyndon Cheetham.

Mason McLarney won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mason McLarney played 94% better than Lyndon Cheetham in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mason McLarney actually played at a level of 3,533 and Lyndon Cheetham at a level of 1,820. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mason McLarney changes to +13% and Lyndon Cheetham changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mason McLarney becomes +5.3% and for Lyndon Cheetham becomes -5.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Mason McLarney is +4% and for Lyndon Cheetham is -3.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mason McLarney: 71%, Lyndon Cheetham: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mason McLarney: 61%, Lyndon Cheetham: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mason McLarney: 3,159, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Lyndon Cheetham: 2,069, level confidence: 66%.