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Patrick Fitzpatrick v Hamish Thornton (Thu 24 Oct 2019)

Match won by Patrick Fitzpatrick. Result: 6-11,11-7,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 4,535, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Hamish Thornton: 3,933, level confidence: 64%.
Patrick Fitzpatrick to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Hamish Thornton.

Patrick Fitzpatrick won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Fitzpatrick played 25% better than Hamish Thornton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Fitzpatrick actually played at a level of 4,727 and Hamish Thornton at a level of 3,773. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to +3.5% and Hamish Thornton changes to -3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes +2% and for Hamish Thornton becomes -2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick is +1.5% and for Hamish Thornton is -1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Fitzpatrick: 84%, Hamish Thornton: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Fitzpatrick: 81%, Hamish Thornton: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 4,595, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Hamish Thornton: 3,864, level confidence: 77%.