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Leslie Callow v Patric Russell (Fri 25 Oct 2019)

Match won by Patric Russell. Result: 6-15,14-15,14-15.

Starting level for Leslie Callow: 929, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Patric Russell: 1,036, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Patric Russell to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Leslie Callow.

Patric Russell won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patric Russell played 40% better than Leslie Callow in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patric Russell actually played at a level of 1,160 and Leslie Callow at a level of 830. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patric Russell changes to +8.9% and Leslie Callow changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patric Russell becomes +5.8% and for Leslie Callow becomes -7.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Patric Russell is +4.4% and for Leslie Callow is -5.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patric Russell: 88%, Leslie Callow: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patric Russell: 79%, Leslie Callow: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leslie Callow: 883, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Patric Russell: 1,080, level confidence: 79%.