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Thomas Knight v Alex Carlton (Fri 25 Oct 2019)

Match won by Thomas Knight. Result: 15-9,8-15,15-11,18-16.

Starting level for Thomas Knight: 2,339, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Alex Carlton: 2,243, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Thomas Knight to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Alex Carlton.

Thomas Knight won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Thomas Knight played 20% better than Alex Carlton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Thomas Knight actually played at a level of 2,509 and Alex Carlton at a level of 2,091. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Thomas Knight changes to +7.1% and Alex Carlton changes to -5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Thomas Knight becomes +3.7% and for Alex Carlton becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Thomas Knight is +2.7% and for Alex Carlton is -2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Thomas Knight: 74%, Alex Carlton: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Thomas Knight: 69%, Alex Carlton: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Thomas Knight: 2,409, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Alex Carlton: 2,198, level confidence: 79%.