Joel Collins v Thomas Knight (Tue 29 Oct 2019)
Match won by Joel Collins. Result: 15-11,15-9,14-16,11-15,15-8.
Starting level for
Joel Collins:
2,018, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Thomas Knight:
2,404, level confidence: 68%.
Thomas Knight to win as he is currently playing
19% better than Joel Collins.
Joel Collins won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Collins played
12% better than Thomas Knight in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Collins actually played at a level of
2,333 and Thomas Knight at a level of
2,080. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Collins changes to +14% and Thomas Knight changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Collins becomes +6.4% and for Thomas Knight becomes -5.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Joel Collins is +4.8% and for Thomas Knight is -4.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Collins: 79%, Thomas Knight: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Collins: 69%, Thomas Knight: 71%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Joel Collins:
2,120, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Thomas Knight:
2,313, level confidence: 71%.