Pujan Soni v Ray Kennedy (Tue 29 Oct 2019)
Match won by Pujan Soni. Result: 11-15,16-14,14-16,15-7,15-12.
Starting level for
Pujan Soni:
670, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for
Ray Kennedy:
665, level confidence: 50%.
Pujan Soni to win as he is currently playing
1% better than Ray Kennedy.
Pujan Soni won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Pujan Soni played
10% better than Ray Kennedy in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Pujan Soni actually played at a level of
701 and Ray Kennedy at a level of
636. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.6% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Pujan Soni changes to +4.6% and Ray Kennedy changes to -4.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Pujan Soni becomes +3.8% and for Ray Kennedy becomes -3.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Pujan Soni is +2.8% and for Ray Kennedy is -2.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Pujan Soni: 70%, Ray Kennedy: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Pujan Soni: 67%, Ray Kennedy: 68%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Pujan Soni:
691, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Ray Kennedy:
648, level confidence: 68%.