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Harry Falconer v George Parker (Wed 30 Oct 2019)

Match won by George Parker. Result: 6-11,5-11,6-11.

Starting level for Harry Falconer: 20,183, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for George Parker: 37,381, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
George Parker to win as he is currently playing 85% better than Harry Falconer.

George Parker won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that George Parker played 94% better than Harry Falconer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like George Parker actually played at a level of 38,269 and Harry Falconer at a level of 19,715. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.7% and 1.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George Parker changes to +1.3% and Harry Falconer changes to -1.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George Parker becomes +0.5% and for Harry Falconer becomes -0.8%.

Given George Parker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 65% has been applied to his level change.

Given Harry Falconer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 40% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for George Parker is 0% and for Harry Falconer is -0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George Parker: 88%, Harry Falconer: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George Parker: 86%, Harry Falconer: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Falconer: 20,152, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for George Parker: 37,560, level confidence: 86%.