Oscar Hill v Ashley Sandyford-Sykes (Fri 01 Nov 2019)
Match won by Oscar Hill. Result: 15-13,9-11,11-6,11-1.
Starting level for
Oscar Hill:
6,431, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for
Ashley Sandyford-Sykes:
5,322, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Oscar Hill to win as he is currently playing
21% better than Ashley Sandyford-Sykes.
Oscar Hill won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oscar Hill played
33% better than Ashley Sandyford-Sykes in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oscar Hill actually played at a level of
6,740 and Ashley Sandyford-Sykes at a level of
5,078. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.8% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oscar Hill changes to +4.4% and Ashley Sandyford-Sykes changes to -2.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oscar Hill becomes +2% and for Ashley Sandyford-Sykes becomes -1.5%.
Given Oscar Hill's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 154% has been applied to his level change.
Given Ashley Sandyford-Sykes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 126% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Oscar Hill is +0.3% and for Ashley Sandyford-Sykes is 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oscar Hill: 67%, Ashley Sandyford-Sykes: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oscar Hill: 64%, Ashley Sandyford-Sykes: 82%.
Final level for Oscar Hill:
6,451, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Ashley Sandyford-Sykes:
5,308, level confidence: 82%.